Post #19: Some lessons in patience and letting go

I made a recent blunder, I sold my $BEL for a small profit hoping to find a faster stock.

Guess what? $BEL broke out and made a new 52-week high a day after I sold it.

chart by www.bigcharts.com

$BEL broke P4.00 and is looking to stay above it.

Although I felt bad about my latest blunder, I fully understand that no one can perfectly predict what the price is gonna do next. The earlier you realized this, the better.

I didn't kick myself out of that mistake. I know there is no way I could've predicted that breakout happening.

I don't like it when stocks hit a new high then hit it's 2-week low. That's the only reason why I sold $BEL.

I still have cash left and is watching if $BEL is worth another try.

Meanwhile, I bought $MEG at P4.10 average.

chart by www.bigcharts.com

My other two stocks are doing much  better, looks like their upward trend is still intact.

I'm up 31% in $MCP and +11% in $IMI.

In port:

$MEG,$MCP,$IMI

Post #18: $BEL out, and another possible entry...

Sold my position in $BEL today as I don't like that it hasn't broke P4.00 yet as of this time.

Though $BEL will remain in my watch-list as long as P3.75 holds.

$BEL will have its time, but it's not yet now.

I can always comeback in when my signals  tells me to.

Right now, I'm watching a possible position in $MEG. Funds from $BEL will move to $MEG if my signals are confirmed.

For now, I only have $MCP and $IMI on my portfolio.

Post #17: Portfolio update

I am still holding the same stocks with my stops adjusted.

$BEL stop at 3.75 still.

$IMI initial stop is at 7.50

$MCP initial stop at 6.50

Screen capture from Philstocks Xavi Android App

The Philippine Index closed at 7446.49 today, a little above its previous trading range of approximately 7200-7400.

I am staying long on my positions as long as my stops are not hit.

As Iv'e said before, my trading style is boring.  Once the time-consuming research is done, I will initiate an entry, and then will do nothing but just watch my stops and adjust them accordingly.

Post #16: Portfolio update

As of last update, I still have positions in the ff. stocks:


1. $MCP

Average: P5.55
Current price: P6.44
Initial stop: P6.00

charts by www.bigcharts.com 

2. $BEL

Average: P3.67
Current price: P3.80
Initial stop: P3.75

charts by www.bigcharts.com

3. $IMI

Average: 6.93
Current price: P7.41
Initial stop: P7.00

charts by www.bigcharts.com

As long as these three won't break my initial stops, I will still stay long in my positions. Nothing to do now but to just watch my stops and look for opportunity (if there is) to add more positions.

Please take note that my stops are only soft stops. Unlike hard stops, that if broken, I immediately exit a position without any second thoughts; initial stops somehow only triggers my warning signal to watch my stops more carefully.

Post #15: IMI Integrated Micro-electronics

Bought some $IMI today at average price of 6.93/share, initial stop at 6.75/share.

I like the way its price is moving, let's see if i'm right.

Current port positions:

$MCP ave. 5.55
$BELave. 3.67
$IMI ave. 6.93

Post #14: Bought some Melco Crown (late update)

Last March 9, 2017, I bought some shares of Melco Crown ($MCP) at P5.54/share.

Please take note that I sold $MCP last December and kept it in my watchlist.

Belle Corp. ($BEL) hit my stop ay P3.65 few times but I am still keeping it because of the very low volume pullback. I'm gonna give it a little bit of breathing room. ($BEL at P3.66/share as of this date)

The index remains in its 7200-7400 trading range and any massive move to any of the side might create a trend.

My stops are closely being monitored as I just entered these positions and the index has no clear trend direction yet.

I'm long approximately 80% of my entire funds right now.

Post#13: Trailing stops hit and some $BEL

Last March 1, 2017, my trailing stop on my position in $STI was hit and I sold my holdings for an average of P1.09/share and a gain of 21% since last November.  I was hoping to let my $STI run but a ranging PSEi made me tighten my stops s little. As always, I promised to follow my plan and I did it without hesitation.

I also sold my $DNL since it failed to maintain it's price above P13/share with a small percentage gain not even worth mentioning.

$DNL and $STI will remain in my watchlist for now again.

Although I felt bad losing my positions, I immediately looked for other stocks that show some strength. I am currently trading with only 50% of my port in positions as I dont like the general market condition.

March 3, 2017 - Bought some $BEL at P3.63/share.

March 6, 2017 - Added some more $BEL as I feel it going stronger at P3.72/share.

Average $BEL price is at P3.67/share.

Update: March 7, 2017 current position up 4.64% with $BEL at P3.88/share.

Initial stop at P3.65.


BELLE CORPORATION ($BEL)

stock chart provided by www.bigcharts.com

Post #12: Thoughts on mining stocks

Earlier this month, Philippine environment secretary Gina Lopez ordered the closure of 21 miners for violating mining and environmental laws.

Some of them are publicly listed in PSE and the news automatically made the price of the companies tumbling down.

I remember some of them being on my watch-list somewhere around November last year. See Fickle nickle: $FNI and $NIKL blog post.

I even mentioned $MARC in my January 13 post.

The main reason I included these stocks in my watch-list is that they are showing good price action set ups during that time. All three are actually on the brink of breaking out that time.

Later though, I removed them from my watch-list after they all showed signs of a failed breakout. A failed breakout is always a red flag for me, it will either go back to a range below the breakout point or it will start to show a lower low trend. Based on my experience, rarely does it go back to test the resistance again. 

All these charts are not shouting BUY to me.  

The mining sector was badly beaten, but there are still good stocks in that sector. I particularly like $PX's price action. 

I haven't posted here that much since I've done literally nothing, they are right when they said that stock investing is boring. I still have $STI and some $DNL in my portfolio. 

I also started trading the Stock Exchange of Thailand. It's a whole new and different market, in a way that it's more liquid and volatile. 

This blog will focus on my PSE trading though, so I wont be posting my Thailand stock market trades here. 

Cheers

Alex

Post #11: D&L Industries

$DNL

chart by www.bigcharts.com

The weekly chart of $DNL shows a perfect cup and handle formation. A breakout on this level, accompanied with good volume will trigger a buy for me.

This stock along with $STI will be my focus for now. The rest will stay at the watchlist.

$STI

chart by www.bigcharts.com

Moved my trailing stop on $STI at P1.00. I conclude that breakout is confirmed and P1.00 will be the new immediate support.

From hereon, I will do nothing but watch my stop and look for opportunity to add more position in case the trend continues to point upward.

Post # 10: Updated watchlist

PSEi started to perform better after the New Year. My risk signal is starting to loosen up and I'm ready to take additional positions.

My watchlist includes stocks that are breaking out of their new high and showing strength in volume.

Currently I am eyeing $MCP, $PX and lately added $DNL and $MARC.

I am currently +11.55% on $STI, the only stock on my portfolio right now.

I will be closely watching for more opportunities to enter additional positions.

Post #9: PSEi back at 7200+

The index closed at 7248 points yesterday. We're going to see if reversal is confirmed next week.

Portfolio: $STI closed at P1.05. Let's see if it will move its support at P1.00.

Watchlist: $MCP, $SMPH, $PX

These three are showing signs of breaking out. I particularly like the patterns that their prices are making.

Post # 8: MCP out

I was convince that $MCP broke its support at P4.00 that I took a small loss and closed my position.

I figured that I can always go back if things look interesting for me again.

I always try to respect my stops. Not doing so caused me great losses few years back.I will never make that mistake again.

chart by bigcharts.com

My position remains in $STI for now. I expected it to range inside the box (.90-1.00+) for a while. Although I do not like the direction of the general market, I'll give $STI more leeway for it showed itself to be resilient.

The index

I am seeing the index ranging between 6800 and 7000. Either a breakdown or a breakout of that range might be at the horizon now, and it will determine the direction that the index will take.

I am not really intending to add to my positions for now. I want the market to show me clear directions before committing any more funds. I will just watch the stop of my current position while waiting for a better market condition.

Post #7: Psei below 6800

The index is once again below 6800 and it is almost confirmed that it is going to continue showing us a lower low trend.

One reason I wasn't able to update this blog is the fact that I actually did nothing these past few weeks.

My port is still consist of $MCP and $STI, with the previous showing lackluster price action and the latter proving to be being resilient.

$MCP will still stay in my port as long as it stay above P4.00. $STI initial support will be P.90.

I'm not even following the market real-time right now, I'm just watching my stops from time to time.

Post #6: We are back above PSEi 7000

Philippine index closed at 7050 today, up 83.84 points from yesterday. I would prefer it that the index stays above 7000. I I'll be closely watching all my stops at this level.

$STI

chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Bought some STI today as it broke its resistance convincingly. Will closely watch price action the next few days and see if it stays above .80 cents.

$BLOOM

www.bigcharts.com

BLOOM seem to be finding it hard to break resistance. IMO, it need to break P7.00 convincingly to get my attention.

$NIKL

www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

NIKL showing strength upon breakout. Will wait and see price action after this breakout before considering taking a position.

$MCP

chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

MCP is showing a lackluster price action lately, but it stays in my port as long as it holds above P4.00. Price is tightening and volume is drying up, a good sign if you ask me.  Will give it a few more days before deciding on my next move.



Remarks: 

In port: STI,MCP

Watching closely: NIKL,LIHC,BLOOM

FNI - should break above P4.00 soon, support at P3.50.

Yellen hinted that an interest rate hike is inevitable, most probably by December.

Post #5: Fickle Nickel

Philippine Index remained below 7000 today. Showed strength in the opening and gave all of it back late afternoon. Not good.

Two stocks caught my attention today. 

$FNI: Will be interesting at breakout. 

charts by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

$NIKL: Good volume, watch for breakout. 

charts by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Will nickel stocks shine the next few days? 

Remarks: Few position at $MCP, support at P4.00.

Overall market condition is not so good, no additional position should be entered. 

Watchlst: FNI,STI,NIKL,BLOOM,MCP

Post #4: PSEi Double Top?

charts by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

I really don't like double top patterns. I believe it means we failed to go higher twice and might find it more difficult to break the resistance the third time. We really need a strong fundamental catalyst to make that happen.

I remain cautious and maintain risking part of my capital to the minimum. Index closed the week at 6975, a few points below my PSEi 7000 support. The index  should go back above 7K or else I'm pulling the plug.

Notes: I still have a few positions  in $MCP but is watching if it holds P4.00.

Post #3: Melco Crown

Chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

$MCP (P4.43 up 4.24%)

A breakout  around P4.50 would be interesting if accompanied by a noticeable volume.


Remarks: 

Overall market market still not showing any signs of reversal as investors are still waiting for the U.S election result.

Only a handful of stocks is on my watch-list.

Post #2: Technical bounce

PSEi showing some bounce on a Friday but lacks convincing volume.

Overall market remains nervous about uncertainty in U.S election next week. (Nov. 8, 2016)

FED decided not to add to uncertainty by keeping interest rates unchanged. A possibility of a December hike is expected though.

Notes: Not risking more than 30% of capital unless market showed strength again. I'm always ready to liquidate all positions in case PSEi goes below 7000.

Post #1: All soul's day

PSEi: on a clear downtrend, below SMA 200, major support PSEi 7000.

Chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Notes: World market is jittery on FOMC meeting Wednesday. November 8 U.S election between Hillary and Trump is also a concern.

Stocks in radar:

$MCP: ranging, support at P3.50, resistance approx 4.50 - showing strength despite overall market weakness.

Chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

$STI: Breakout candidate, range - .70-.83, stock is resilient despite overall market weakness.

Chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Remarks:

Watch overall market, minimize risk until market shows obvious direction.