PSEi: Golden Cross vs the Death cross

As a trend follower, I mainly rely on moving averages to identify trends in stocks. Reasonably, I'm also using the same tool in assessing the general market's trend. One traditional moving average signal that I'm using to identify longer time-frame trend of the PSEi is the 50 and 200 simple moving averages crossover.

A GOLDEN  CROSS (50 sma crossing above 200 sma) indicates a long-term bull market going forward, while a DEATH CROSS (50 sma crossing below 200 sma) signals a long-term bear market. Either cross may occur as a signal of a trend change, but they more frequently occur as a strong indication of a reversal that has already taken place. I use this moving averages to decide whether I should have some position or not, as well as determining the percentage I'm willing to risk in every trade. Mix in volume and you'll have a simple but very reliable signal to use. As always, for me price and volume is king, the rest are just noise. A simple tool to clearly see the market's direction (up, down, or sideways).

Notes: 
I'm only in the market right after the GOLDEN CROSS. 
I trade normally when prices above 50 sma. 
I lessen risk tolerance when prices go below 50 SMA.
I go all cash and wait in the sidelines when DEATH CROSS happens.

This strategy has saved my portfolio from big losses during big market dips. Additionally, on  long up trends I can confidently let my profits run as long as my moving averages are pointing up. Take note though that I only use this to assess the general market's trend.

Post #56: My January 2019 trades review

Starting this year I'll make it a habit to review all my trades every end of the month; doing this will help me see my mistakes, correct them and fine tune my system.

I will post some of my trades here.

ABACORE CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. ($ABA)

Bought: P0.63
Stop: P0.59
Sold: P.071
Return: Approx +13%

Comment:

I tend to be just swing trading for now as the index is still ranging around 8000. Sold this one on the first sign of strength.



ABOITIZ EQUITY VENTURES, INC. ($AEV)

Bought: P58.95
Stop: P55
Sold: Half @ P65
Return: Approx +10%
Status: Holding half with stop at P62.50

Comment:

I sold half of this stock after it showed a very long red candle in one day, that move actually hit my stop but I wasn't able to sell it immediately because of my FT work. I decided to wait a few days to see the reaction after that sudden sell off. Also, I decided to sell only half of the position as I see the stock moving in sync with its 20 day moving average. I'll give it a few more days to see.


GREENERGY HOLDINGS, INC. ($GREEN)

Bought: P2.00, P2.21 (Average P2.10)
Stop: 20 MA
Sold: (half) P3.20
Status: Holding half

Comment:

I wasn't expecting this stock to gap up and reach its ceiling price in just a day, I just knew that the narrowing price range is a good sign. I'm surprised to read the news early morning of Jan. 31 that the company is having an MOA with TheBizLink; the market presumable took it as a very good news, reason enough for it to gap up in the open and reached ceiling price at one moment. Looking at the intraday chart, I decided to sell half of it when the price broke P3.20. Though, I will keep the other half to see the strength of the rebound.


VITARICH CORPORATION ($VITA)

Bought: P2.03
Stop loss upon entry: P1.90
Sold: P1.98
Return: (-2%)

Comment:

The price reached P2.20 (1/15/2019), which could've given me an approximately +9% of return, but I was thinking it was too early to sell and only moved my stop to P2.00. It seemed to be a strong support until it convincingly broke last 1/28/2019, reason enough for me to sell all of my positions with a -2% loss.


TRAVELLERS INTL. HOTEL GROUP, INC. ($RWM)
Bought: P5.38
Sold half: P5.75 (6%)
Sold half: P5.52 (2.5%)

Comment:

This stock seem to be a sleeper stock for a long time, until one day it suddenly just rises from the ashes without any warning. The next day though, it went below my trailing stop and I wasn't able to sell (OFW) so I decided to wait a few days to see the price action before selling. This stock confuses me somehow, so I decided to let go of it for now. I also sold my $RWM in my sister's account, which I bought last year.

PHILEX MINING CORPORATION ($PX)

Bought: P4.26
Stop: P4.00
Sold: P3.91
Return: (-8.30%)

Comment:

I bought this stock when it's about to breakout the P4.30 level and I put my stop at P4.00. Sold it ASAP when it broke P4.00.

Note: The price of $PX has recovered well after that and I already bought some positions again.


OTHER STOCKS

Some other stocks I traded but not shown here are $CHP, $NRCP, $BLOOM.

Post #55: PSEi Golden Cross

The golden cross is a bullish breakout pattern formed from a crossover involving index short-term MA (50) breaking above its long-term MA(200). Golden Cross indicates a bull market on the horizon and is reinforced by high trading volumes.

Is the Golden Cross the sign we have been waiting for? Will the index resume its uptrend and break the 8000 resistance convincingly?

No one knows for sure, so it pays to be always ready no matter what the next few weeks will bring; I have my trading plans in place, whichever direction the market will take. I'm so ready I can't wait!

Good luck to us all my fellow traders.

Post #54: Short Play $CHP

chart by marketwatch.com

Latest: January 14, 2019
Price: Php 1.98
Conclusion: Cut loss hit (SOLD)

Latest: January 13, 2019 (10:40 PM)
Price: Php 2.03
Stop: Php 2.00

Update: January 8, 2019 (11:00PM)
Price: Php 2.14 (+7%)
Stop: Php 2.00

Disclaimer: This is only a stock simulation trade. Follow at your own risk. Proper risk management measures should be observed in every trade.

Post #53: Trading simulation ($AEV)

chart by www.marketwatch.com

Update: January 21, 2019
Price: P66.60
Stop: P64
Approx +15%

Latest: January 15, 2019
Price: Php 64.80
Stop: Php 60

Latest: January 13, 2019
Price: Php 60.00
Stop: Php 58.00

Update: January 8, 2019, 10:00 PM
Price: Php 57.20 (no change)
Stop: Php 55


Disclaimer: This is only a stock simulation trade. Follow at your own risk. Proper risk management measures should be observed in every trade.

Post #52: My 2018 results

I had a very disappointing 2018, my entire portfolio suffered a -19% loss. My stock picking only had 33% success rate, picking only 9 winners out of the 27 trades I took last year. Though I managed to keep my risk percentage within my limit, my poor stock picking numbers really hurt my portfolio's entire performance. 

I forced some of my trades in a downhill market; and the market taught me a hard lesson. My strategy will not work on a down-trending market, I actually knew that, but still I tried to enter positions I thought are feasible. I knew I should listen to the market, but I still took some risk and I paid for it with my money. A different kind of market needs a different kind of approach, that's my main takeaway from this lesson. I cannot be a momentum trader in a market for swing traders. 

This year, 2019, the PSE index started the year ranging between 7400 and 7600; a breakout of the range might show the direction of the market. I like the fact that we seem to be independent of what's going on with the world markets right now. Our market seems to be shaping it's own direction. It is exciting to see where this is heading.

Losing gives us opportunities to learn and evaluate our selves. I will consider my 2018 draw-down as just another lesson learned. Trading for me is a long game, and a year of negative return will not deter me but will instead fire me up to learn more. We all still have our best years ahead of us. Keep grinding , keep learning. 

Post #51: PSEi update

PSEI 5 year weekly chart by www.Bigcharts.Marketwatch.com

The Philippine stock exchange index (PSEi) seems to be displaying a corrective wave in its downtrend. I will still remain cautious and will not enter in any position. Although some bounce plays are possible in this scenario, it is something that I don't intend to take anymore. I am in the opinion that the downtrend is still intact and the possibility of downward continuation is highly possible.

I'm still sticking to my plan of not trading a generally bearish market. I am willing to wait for the market to tell me when it's time to go back again. There is no rush to make money in my part; I consider trading as a long game and I'm planning to stick around as long as I can. I believe the key to longevity and winning in this game is risk management.

I will be just watching the market until my signal tells me it's time to take some position. I might even end the year without entering any position. I'm sticking to my guns.

Post #50: PSEi worst days far from over

The Philippine index seem to be bouncing inside the range of 7000-8000 right after it went below 8000 last April 2018. In my opinion, any breach on either side will dictate the direction of the entire market for the next months to come. 

PSEi as of October 3, 2018

I am still not trading this market. Although Iv'e seen some very tempting set ups and possible short plays on some individual stocks, I am not breaking my trading rules. I will be at the sidelines as long as I don't see any reason to go back in. It might take a few more months,  or even years for the market to recover, and I'm willing to wait. There are other things to do in life outside of trading. Trading is a long game.There are also other ways to build wealth. Diversify.

This year's market condition give me another perspective on the idea of trading as a full-time job. Sure it would be fun in a trending up market, but markets like the one we have right now will be a sure snoozefest. The change in perspective surely has affected my long term plans as well. It's funny how we feel so sure of what we want until something change our views entirely. It reminds me to be always flexible with my plans and goals, because nothing stays the same and you should always be re-evaluating your next move.