Post #51: PSEi update

PSEI 5 year weekly chart by www.Bigcharts.Marketwatch.com

The Philippine stock exchange index (PSEi) seems to be displaying a corrective wave in its downtrend. I will still remain cautious and will not enter in any position. Although some bounce plays are possible in this scenario, it is something that I don't intend to take anymore. I am in the opinion that the downtrend is still intact and the possibility of downward continuation is highly possible.

I'm still sticking to my plan of not trading a generally bearish market. I am willing to wait for the market to tell me when it's time to go back again. There is no rush to make money in my part; I consider trading as a long game and I'm planning to stick around as long as I can. I believe the key to longevity and winning in this game is risk management.

I will be just watching the market until my signal tells me it's time to take some position. I might even end the year without entering any position. I'm sticking to my guns.

Post #47: End of May 2018 numbers

This is a bitter pill to swallow, but I have to accept that this kind of market is not really my forte. I'm down -10% YTD and in my opinion is experiencing a really bad drawdown. I'm focusing all my efforts now on risk management and keeping may capital safe.

With PSEi ranging between 7600 - 7800, I'm still very wary of putting a big chunk of my portfolio in positions. My risk management involves smaller sizing, smaller risk tolerance and tighter stops. I am hoping to see a clearer market trend when the index gets out of this 7600-7800 range, hopefully with an upward bias. Otherwise, for me it is either play tight defense or get out of the marekt entirely.

Post 45: Lessons from my top 5 trades last year (2017)

They say that we can learn a lot of lessons reviewing our loses and mistakes, while it is accurate, I also believe that we can learn a lot from reviewing our winning trades.

Below are my top 5 winning trades last year. While I am happy with my profits, my numbers showed I only have approx 21% average profit last year. (See previous post) Quite low if you ask me.

Reviewing my trades helped me identify problems in my process. Because of it I can implement some improvements that will hopefully improve my results this year.

1. $ROCK

chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

I noticed an increased in volume and a slight uptrend mid-November that triggered my buy signal. Sold it when it broke the trendline Dec. 15, 2017. I timely avoided a turn of trend in this trade.


2. $MAC

chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Bought it September when I saw a tightening price volatility with an increase in volume. Sold it Around November 22 with a 41% profit when it broke my trailing stop.

This stock perfectly stayed above 50 SMA, which is usually my last line of support in a trade. I could've hold it and be alright by now. It looks ready to take another breakout this year, I'll be closely watching.

Also, I could've seen this stock earlier if I am diligently doing my research. I could've bought it around June or July of 2017. This reminds me to do my research and screening diligently so that I wont miss many buying opportunities in the future.

3. $WLCON

chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Bought this twice in May with an average of P5.42/share. Held on to it until I am convinced that it broke the 50sma on October 11, 2017.

Starting now, I will respect the 50sma as my last line of support. I guess I was hoping for the price to go up once more and give me the opportunity to sell at a higher price. Hope is not a strategy. Follow the plan.

4. MRP

chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Here is another one that I bought a little late. January 2017 is where the ideal entry should be. I guess I'm not religiously doing my screening by that time again. (reoccurring mistake).

Another mistake I made is when I sold this at P8.68, a safe distance from any of my trail stops. I could not explain this one, I don't know why I sold this at this price. I could've squeezed a little bit more from this trade if only I have just defined my selling strategy.

It is very evident by now that I need to work on my selling strategy. Something I am planning to improve this year.

5. $IMI

By now I have to admit that I have a very faulty selling strategy. This one is a good run from my entry price of P6.91 to my selling price of P13.30 in August.

Why do I feel like I sold too late this time? I know I did.

The stock broke 50SMA and I sold it. I followed my plan but I still lost a big chunk of the profit and I felt bad about it.

Conclusion

It is very clear by now that I should be working on my selling strategy. I don't have the perfect system yet and this trades proved it. I am currently working on a selling strategy to at least improve my profit's average percentage.

I will also be allocating more time in screening potential winners for me to catch them in their earlier stages. Nothing beats a lower average price.

My batting average of 52% (13 out of 25 trades) is good enough, but I need to catch these winner earlier and learn how to sell them. A concrete plan with a win-win result is on the drawing board.

By reviewing my trades,  I know where my mistakes are. Knowing my mistakes will help me create a specific plan to address each of them.

My next post will be about my top 5 losers.

Post 44: Summary of my 2017 Performance

Post #40: Sold $PGOLD, bought $TUGS

Update: November 10, 2017 - Sold $TUGS, its volatility doesn't fit my trading style. 

After two months of holding $PGOLD, I decided it is too slow of a stock and sold it for only around 5% gain. I just realized that maybe I waited too long for it to do something. That's my problem, I'm too patient in trading.

After that, half of the funds from the  $PGOLD sale, I decided to move into $TUGS. It seem to be starting a good trend. As always, this being a speculative play, I'll make sure to watch my stop loss level closely.

chart from www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

I'm also watching $CPM especially if it breaks above P1.70 convincingly.

chart from www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

I realized that if I want to make it past 100% YTD returns before the year ends, I need to let go of the slow stocks in my portfolio and find a high flyer. Let's keep this simple, cut the losers and the laggers short and let the winners run until they ran out of steam.

Cheers.

Alex

Post #38: Portfolio's YTD update

As of October 30, 2017, my Portfolio's YTD return is at 81.60%. The few months of drawdown slowed down my progress, but I'm still confident I can make it past 100% by year-end.

I'll just continue to watch my stops and look for other opportunities. As long as I keep my losses small and ride my winners, my portfolio will be alright. I'm also looking for ways I can further improve my system.

Portfolio update:

screengrab from Philstocks App

Hope everyone enjoys their All Soul's day holiday. This is a good reason to take your mind away from the market and spend quality time with your family. Always remember, time is the most precious and priceless investment one can have; spend it wisely.

The last two months of the year should be good for stocks. Bring it on!

Cheers

Alex

Post #34: SL (Stop Loss) instead of TP (Target Price)

I really don't believe in including a target price on my trading plans. For me it is a very limiting belief. It is like putting a limit on what you can achieve when you can do so much more. As a trader who mostly rely on price action to trade, Iv'e got a few reasons why I don't use a TP (target price), but instead I am more strict on putting a SL(stop loss) in all of my trading plans.

First of all, I believe that no one can predict with certainty where the price of a stock is going. We can only speculate. Therefore, to put a TP on a stock is like predicting that the stock cannot go up much further. In fact, even fundamental analysis can only assign a valuation to a stock but can't predict it with certainty. It is the crowd sentiment that is moving the stock prices, which is highly driven by emotion, which we all know are intangible and can't be measured.

Let your winners run. I like to keep trending stocks running until they ran out of steam. As a position trader, I'm not really looking for quick gains but I'm looking for stock that I can milk. I won't easily sell a 50% gain if I know the possibility of it reaching 100% is probable. I trade not for quick and small gains, I'm after for bigger moves that will significantly affect my portfolio's percentage gain.

To minimize risk using this no TP method, I always put a stop loss (SL) on all my trades. Before I buy a stock, I already have a stop loss. This is even more important to me because my stop loss will determine my position size. (More on this on my later posts). As the price goes up, I move my stop to what I think is the next best support. I trail my stops. I only sell when my stop is hit.

Having no TP but using a SL strictly might not help you sell at the top, but it will always keep you from selling too soon. The trailing stop will help you keep your profits safe. My main goal is to let my winners run, trail my stop as they run up to secure some profits, and sell before the trend reverses. It is simple for me, No TP only SL.

Portfolio update:

Sold my $WPI at P1.22 as I think it is quite lagging and moved my funds to $MAC.

Bought P15.30
Stop: P14

chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Current portfolio:

$PGOLD (+8%)
$WLCON (+64%)
$PRMX (+12%)
$MAC (new)
$MEG (+11%)

PS: Let's connect at Twitter.

Post #33: Be obsessed or be Average

Me and my copy of The Trading code by Jason Cam (2015)

Took the title from a book by Grant Cardone. This book suggests that if you want to be successful in anything, be so obsessed about it, or end up being just an average Joe. You just have to work 10 times more and be 10 times more hungrier than the average guy. I am writing this post as a reminder to myself to restore my focus and determination in getting those winning trades. These past few weeks I got sidetracked and distracted by something else not stock trading related. And guess what happened to my results? Even my virtual portfolio in Investacup suffered a big draw-down. This post is a reminder for myself and hopefully for many others too, that we should focus more on what we love the most, or pay the price for being an average. I'm gonna share here why I think being obsessed is good for us and why we should strive to reach our goals in trading no matter what.

Being obsessed will give us a laser-like focus on our goals. We will be so determined to focus only on what is important to us; our goals and dreams. Any other activities not related to the goal will only distract us, therefore it is wise to either minimize our time spent on them or eliminate them from our life entirely. We all should be focusing our time and energy trying to reach our goals, instead of wasting it on things that really doesn't help us get nearer to that dream.

Loving what we do will make as passionate. And to live passionately is a great way to live. If you already found what you love to do, do it passionately and great things will happen. Being passionate will fuel us with energy of enthusiasm, and people will notice that energy. In result, people with the same goals as us will be drawn to us and other people will be curious too.

Being obsessed will give us a more positive mindset. We won't be giving up on our dreams and goal that fast. We will be so determined that it is almost impossible to discourage us. We will consider failures as temporary, and we know we can get back on our feet ASAP. Being obsessed with a goal gives us no other options but to work on our dreams until we achieved it.

The word obsessed really gets a bad rap from most people, for them it means closer to being crazy. But we can look at it with a more positive light. Being obsessed means you are focused on you goal. Being obsessed means you know your priorities. Being obsessed means you should spend more time working for your goals. Being obsessed means you will not stop until you reach your goals. For traders being obsessed means getting rid of all the distractions, freeing up your time, and work on improving your trading system. It could also means getting our lazy ass up and do that research work, no excuses. So put in the work guys, don't be just like the other average traders out there. I invite you to be obsessed like me.

P.S: I just created a twitter account, let's connect there. Thanks

Post #21: YTD portfolio performance

I am quite satisfied to report that my current portfolio is up 15.26% YTD. I started monitoring my portfolio performance since January 1, 2017; a good way to assess myself if I am indeed making progress in this business. There are plenty of reasons why you should monitor your portfolio performance too.

By plotting your performance you will know if your system is really working for you. Looking at your performance, you will get a more concrete look at your portfolio's movement. This way you know where you are in relationship to where you want to go or what you want to achieve.

By seeing your YTD performance, you'll have a chance to assess yourself. You will learn what you did right/wrong in a particular time or trade. This way it is easier to make adjustments, simply by looking at your performance chart, you can pinpoint your mistakes as well as the things you did right.

Another important reason why you should monitor your performance is bench-marking. This way you will have an estimate on how well  you are progressing compared to your peers, to the index or to other funds manager. This can motivate you to learn more for you to be able beat the index or the mutual fund managers. If your'e doing well, this could also give you motivation as you are patting yourself on the back.

So I encourage every trader to monitor their YTD performance; make a record of it and make a graph out of it. It can help you physically look at your progress, asses yourself and your system, and motivate you by comparing your result with others.

Portfolio update.

My current positions are in $MCP,$IMI,$BEL and $MEG.

The market is feeling a little bullish and people seem to be more willing to buy it up.

I'll stick to the only thing I should do,let them(stocks) run and just watch my trailing stops.

Note:Edited June 6, 2017 to correct inputs in the YTD chart.

Post#13: Trailing stops hit and some $BEL

Last March 1, 2017, my trailing stop on my position in $STI was hit and I sold my holdings for an average of P1.09/share and a gain of 21% since last November.  I was hoping to let my $STI run but a ranging PSEi made me tighten my stops s little. As always, I promised to follow my plan and I did it without hesitation.

I also sold my $DNL since it failed to maintain it's price above P13/share with a small percentage gain not even worth mentioning.

$DNL and $STI will remain in my watchlist for now again.

Although I felt bad losing my positions, I immediately looked for other stocks that show some strength. I am currently trading with only 50% of my port in positions as I dont like the general market condition.

March 3, 2017 - Bought some $BEL at P3.63/share.

March 6, 2017 - Added some more $BEL as I feel it going stronger at P3.72/share.

Average $BEL price is at P3.67/share.

Update: March 7, 2017 current position up 4.64% with $BEL at P3.88/share.

Initial stop at P3.65.


BELLE CORPORATION ($BEL)

stock chart provided by www.bigcharts.com

Post #1: All soul's day

PSEi: on a clear downtrend, below SMA 200, major support PSEi 7000.

Chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Notes: World market is jittery on FOMC meeting Wednesday. November 8 U.S election between Hillary and Trump is also a concern.

Stocks in radar:

$MCP: ranging, support at P3.50, resistance approx 4.50 - showing strength despite overall market weakness.

Chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

$STI: Breakout candidate, range - .70-.83, stock is resilient despite overall market weakness.

Chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Remarks:

Watch overall market, minimize risk until market shows obvious direction.