Showing posts with label $WLCON. Show all posts
Showing posts with label $WLCON. Show all posts

Oct 13, 2017

Post #37: Watching $STI


Since I have some extra funds from the profits I took from $WLCON, I am currently looking for a new stock to buy.

There are really some interesting stocks like $IMI and $SMPH for example that are very tempting at their current set ups. 

Another stock that I find interesting is $STI. It looks like it is posing for a breakout. And I like the fact that it doesn't get a lot of attention yet. 





I'm thinking of buying it at it's current price of P1.60 and put my stop at below P1.50. We'll see what happens.

Current portfolio stocks:

$PRMX +19%
$MAC +11%
$MEG +13%
$PGOLD +8%

Oct 11, 2017

Post #36: Sold $WLCON

Quick update:

I sold my $WLCON when it broke my trailing stop at +50% gain.

chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Now that I have funds for another stock, I'll be on the look up for my next monster stock.

Portfolio:

$PRMX
$PGOLD
$MEG
$MAC

Sep 29, 2017

Post #34: SL (Stop Loss) instead of TP (Target Price)

I really don't believe in including a target price on my trading plans. For me it is a very limiting belief. It is like putting a limit on what you can achieve when you can do so much more. As a trader who mostly rely on price action to trade, Iv'e got a few reasons why I don't use a TP (target price), but instead I am more strict on putting a SL(stop loss) in all of my trading plans.

First of all, I believe that no one can predict with certainty where the price of a stock is going. We can only speculate. Therefore, to put a TP on a stock is like predicting that the stock cannot go up much further. In fact, even fundamental analysis can only assign a valuation to a stock but can't predict it with certainty. It is the crowd sentiment that is moving the stock prices, which is highly driven by emotion, which we all know are intangible and can't be measured.

Let your winners run. I like to keep trending stocks running until they ran out of steam. As a position trader, I'm not really looking for quick gains but I'm looking for stock that I can milk. I won't easily sell a 50% gain if I know the possibility of it reaching 100% is probable. I trade not for quick and small gains, I'm after for bigger moves that will significantly affect my portfolio's percentage gain.

To minimize risk using this no TP method, I always put a stop loss (SL) on all my trades. Before I buy a stock, I already have a stop loss. This is even more important to me because my stop loss will determine my position size. (More on this on my later posts). As the price goes up, I move my stop to what I think is the next best support. I trail my stops. I only sell when my stop is hit.

Having no TP but using a SL strictly might not help you sell at the top, but it will always keep you from selling too soon. The trailing stop will help you keep your profits safe. My main goal is to let my winners run, trail my stop as they run up to secure some profits, and sell before the trend reverses. It is simple for me, No TP only SL.

Portfolio update:

Sold my $WPI at P1.22 as I think it is quite lagging and moved my funds to $MAC.

Bought P15.30
Stop: P14

chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com


Current portfolio:

$PGOLD (+8%)
$WLCON (+64%)
$PRMX (+12%)
$MAC (new)
$MEG (+11%)

PS: Let's connect at Twitter.

Sep 22, 2017

Post #32: Waterfront Philippines

Bought $WPI yesterday at P1.31 and I put my stop at below P1.20.

chart by www.bigharts.marketwatch.com

I am putting my stop tighter on this one as I consider this as a very speculative trade. I am trading solely on the price action; a tightening range and drying volume looks good to me.

Let's see how this one will go after a few days. If there's anything that will cause me any concern about this stock, I'll get out as fast as I can.

The index is looking great at above 8300 as of today. Let's see if it will confirm its breakout next week.

Portfolio:
$WLCON
$PRMX
$PGOLD
$WPI
$MEG (my sister's stock)

Cheers.

Sep 19, 2017

Post #31: PSEi 8300 and beyond?

The index showed some strength yesterday when it broke its previous high.

It looked like money is moving back to the blues.

Will some second liners take a backseat and let the blues in-charge?

Or will this rising tide float all the boats?

I got a lot of questions in my mind right now, but the only way to find out  is to wait and see.

Portfolio update:

$BLOOM
chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com

I sold my $BLOOM for a minimal profit when it started to show a downward trend right after Razon sold P3.5 billion worth of his shares in an overnight placement. When 11 Pesos broke, that's the last straw for me. Longer term, the added liquidity might prove to be good for the stock. But right now, I'll act based on what I see on the price action.

Current portfolio positions:

1. $WLCON
2. $PRMX
3. $PGOLD

Now, I  have some funds to look for a new stock. I might be able to enter a new position in a few days.

Note: My sister invested to me part of her savings. I bought $MEG for her, she is now up 10% with $MEG at P5.30. I didn't include this stock in my YTD portfolio performance as I consider this as not my part of my personal portfolio.






Sep 11, 2017

Post #30: Quick updates

Added two stocks in my portfolio.



Bought $PRMX at P5.40
Date: September 4, 2017

chart by www.bigharts.marketwatch.com

Bought $PGOLD at P48.30
Date: September 4, 2017

chart by www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com



Portfolio: $PRMX, $PGOLD, $WLCON, $BLOOM


Aug 25, 2017

Post #29: The ghost of PSEi 8000

I was not able to update the blog due to laziness and me trying to learn a new sport. Today, I have some spare time to waste, so here it goes...

Here's what Iv'e done this past few weeks:


1. SOLD $IMI (+92%)


chart by www.bigcharts.com
Finally sold $IMI after 5 months for approximately 92% gain. My dream of getting it beyond 100% didn't happen. I could've sold it for around 130% gain when it peaked around mid of July, but since I gave my stocks more leeway (esp if I have a low base price), it has gone down quiet significantly from its peak before I sold it. I'm fine with that. There is no way I could've predicted the top.


2. SOLD $STI (11%)


chart by www.bigcharts.com
$STI also hit my final stop (usually SMA 50) first week of August , so I sold it for an 11% gain. Not so significant, but at least I'm not in the loss.


3. SOLD $LR (approx -5%)

chart by www.bigcharts.com
This one is a real blunder, I should've sold it when it hit its stop at least at the break even price. The SMA 50 stop was wrong in this situation since I don't have a low base.


4. HOLDING ON $WLCON (+60%)

chart by www.bighcharts.com
$WLCON bounced convincingly when it hit the 50 day, one reason I'm still holding it. I'm currently at approx +60% with it. 

5. BOUGHT $BLOOM

chart by www.bigcharts.com

I should've bought this one earlier when it broke 10 pesos. I like the price action, let's see what happens. 


Post conclusion

It is clear that I could've gotten a much bigger return if I sold my positions at their peak. Although, there is no way for me to pinpoint that peak at that time. My rule is not to sell at the peak, but to give stocks more leeway just in case it want to go up more (see $WLCON). The $LR case is an example of me being too patient, not a good idea if you don't have a low base. The trick is to know when to be patient, and when to be quick in cutting your losses. 

I believe the index is in a make-or-break scenario when it comes to PSEi 8000, couple that with the ghost month (Aug. 22-Sep.19, 2017), and we have a lackluster market. But as always, we'll never know for sure. Always be on the lookout for the next monster stock. 

Cheers..

Alex

Aug 1, 2017

Post 28: Hungry ghost

This July - August month has been the worst for my portfolio so far. My total portfolio value is -3.68% this month, down to 68.59% YTD. It's probably the market hesitating to breakout, as well as most traders are being cautious because of the coming ghost month (Aug. 22- Sep. 19, 2017). 

YTD Portfolio 
The PSEi is currently hesitating at its obvious resistance of 8000 level. A clear breakout on this level will be very bullish, but another failed attempt will be disastrous.This is not a good time to predict market directions, I'll let the market tell me where it wants to go. 

My portfolio is currently consist of $IMI, $WLCON, $LR and $STI. 

DEFENSE is the name of the game in this kind of market uncertainty. I'm currently watching closely all my stops.

Jul 5, 2017

Post #27: STI and some LR

$STI opened with a gap today but closed lower. A little concerning but not a signal for reversal yet.

Current price is at P1.60 and I have my trailing stop around P1.50.

chart by www.bigcharts.com

Some people will take this as a reversal signal but I am willing to give it more leeway as long as it doesn't break my stop.  


Another interesting stock for me is $LR, it's been on my watch-list for quite some time now.

Today I bought some. Only time will tell if I'm right.


chart by www.bigcharts.com

My stop is around P4.35 and more positions will be added in the next few days if my entry is proven to be good.


Current positions: $IMI, $WLCON, $STI, $LR


Jul 4, 2017

Post #26: Lessons learned

They said that doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is insanity. Learning from our mistakes is one of the most important component of our growth. We can read all the books we want on theories and what mistakes to avoid from other people's experience, but experiencing it ourselves is invaluable. I will narrate here some of the top mistakes I made when I was still new to trading the market, hoping that this will inspire self-reflection from other traders.

My trading PC a few years back :)


1. Not having a trading plan of my own

When I was really new to trading, I would buy stocks impulsively without any plans at all. If I saw any stocks trending on social media, I would get excited and will decide to try and maybe buy some of it.  I can't remember any of that trades ended of me getting substantial profits.

You can't rely on following other people's post on social media, most of them are posting stocks they already have positions in and they actually just want you to buy and help their stocks go up in price so they can sell it with a profit. I still see a lot of newbies joining many different groups in FB thinking that the more groups they join the more good tips or rumors they'll get. This is sadly not true, I believe that almost 95% of posts in social media are either people hyping up their positions or newbies trying their hands on TA or Fundamental analysis. Social media is the easiest place to get validations since we can get instant feedback through likes and comments; and some people get satisfaction from this.

The best thing to do is create your own trading plan. Make your own research and set a definite buy and sell plans for your trades. Create every possible scenario in your mind and make a definite action plan for every scenario to avoid surprises. This way, you'll be trading your own plans and not just become a pawn in other people's trading plans.

2. Over-trading

I used to trade like I need to earn some cash everyday. I felt like I need to take every opportunity I see or I will miss a possible profitable trade. This made me jump from one trade to another hoping to catch a good trade. 

I also trade a lot of stocks at once. Maybe I was thinking that the more stocks I buy, the more chances of me hitting that one lucky trade. I did get lucky once in a while, but mostly my losers will cancel out my gains or worst surpass it. 

My solution is to focus on a few good stocks, try to get significant volume on them and ride the big moves. Sure, you'll get some profits off quicker trades but they'll never be significant to affect your entire portfolio because it is difficult to get significant volume on a quick trade. My goal is too catch big moves with volume. Longer time-frames and getting significant volume results in bigger profits, at least in my experience.

3. Trading for excitement

I used to tell my friends that I love trading because it is exciting. The ups and down in my portfolio is actually parallel to the state of my own mood. I felt down when I am on a losing trade and I am euphoric when I'm profitable. The swing from one emotional low to another high is addictive, but it is not filling my bank account.

If you trade for excitement, stop immediately and reflect. I'm serious. The market is not the place to fulfill your needs for excitement. There are surely other adrenaline-producing activities one can do outside the market.

The easiest way to asses yourself is to ask yourself this questions:

Am I trading because it's cool and it excites me?

Are weekends boring to me because there is no trading?

Does my mood reflects my portfolio's gains or losses?

If you answered YES to any of that questions, your'e "probably" trading for excitement.

The easiest solution to this is to assess yourself and think deeply why  you are trading. It is normal for us humans to feel happy and sad in relation to a win or a loss but the most important thing is to identify your definite chief aim in trading. Was it to get excitement or was it to make money?

Don't treat the market as a hobby, hobbies don't give profits but instead it cost us money. Find excitement outside of trading; play sports or engage in some adrenaline-producing activities outside of trading. Emotions gets in the way of making rational decision in trading.

4. Over complicating my system

Iv'e studied almost all TA indicators used and Iv'e also read many books on FA. I used to believe that the more indicators I use, I can better fine tune my entries and exits flawlessly. I used to love matching indicators like MACD, RSI, Bollingers band, PSAR and Fibo retracement and many more hoping to find that perfect stock. Can you imagine how chaotic my charts looked like back then?  I now believe otherwise, as I am only using price action, volume and some little info about the stock's fundamentals.

In my opinion, most of the indicators are lagging and they are of little importance. Focus on a few indicators that works for you instead. Stick to one strategy and master that, instead of polluting your charts with many different confusing indicators.

5. Not doing self-evaluation

I used to trade blind; I have no goals and I am not assessing my progress. I don't even know if I am doing any progress at all or if my system is really working as I believe it is.

Without self-assessment, you won't know your mistakes; not recognizing those mistakes, won't give you any chances to correct them.

Review your system and study your past trades. What reoccurring mistakes are evident? How can you correct them?

Measure your progress. How's your performance compared to last month or last year? When you applied the changes in your system, did it affect your portfolio's performance? Are you satisfied with your progress? What improvements do you think are needed to enhance your results?

To improve, you have to continually measure your progress and make the necessary adjustments.


Conclusion

Studying past mistakes are vital to our success as traders. Experience is the best teacher, the lessons will last and stick to us longer than the knowledge we got from reading about other people's experience. These above are my own personal experiences and I encourage everyone to review and study their past mistakes too. You'll learn more studying your past mistakes than studying other people's mistakes. All it requires is an honest assessment of oneself.


Portfolio update:

Sold my $MEG last Friday with only 1.54% gain as my trailing stop was hit. 

Current positions $IMI (+103%), $WLCON (+46%), $STI (+27%)

Cheers

Alex


Jun 19, 2017

Post #25: My love story with $BEL and $STI...

Me with the love of my life


We all have love stories to tell. Some of our stories have happy endings, but others don't end the way we hoped them to be. Some gave us unforgettable heartaches but some also gave us good memories. What is important with all of these experiences are the lessons we learned from them. Trading is similar to dating, some stocks will break your heart, but some will make you happy. Some of the decisions you made you will surely regret, but the lessons will stick to you and make you a better trader.

This story is about what happened to me in $BEL and $STI. One seduced me twice but broke my heart in the end, the other made me happy once and is giving me another chance to be with her again.

I believe that a picture or a chart is still worth a thousand words.

Let me show you.

After two attempt to woe her, I finally decided to let $BEL go. It's clear to me, we are not meant to be, at least for now. Maybe someday..
chart by www.bigcharts.com

On the other hand, another stock is giving me a second chance at her. They said love is sweeter the second time around and hopefully $STI will prove it to me once again. I enjoy a good challenge and looks like she is up for a game.


chart by www.bigcharts.com


What lessons did I learn? I learned that you will make mistakes no matter how careful you are. And I also learned that it is okay to make mistakes, for mistakes will teach us valuable lessons. Finally, I also learned that mistakes should not discourage us in making new trades, take the challenge and try again and again until you find your happy ending. Never give up on love.

Port update:

$IMI +77%, $WLCON +28%, $STI +7%,$MEG +8%

Jun 8, 2017

Post #24: Bullish or Bearish?

Where do you think the market is heading?  View from Victoria Peak, Hong Kong, photo by yours truly.


People always ask me if either I'm Bullish or Bearish with the market. It's like people want to know my opinion of the market and then see if it validates their views. If you really want to know the answer to that, just turn on the TV; we'll never ran out of expert opinions on the matter.  But then again, market predictions will be different from one expert to another.

The market will go where it want to go. It doesn't care about my opinion or yours. I trade what I see, not what I thought the market is going to do. I don't listen to any analyst on TV, all of them are as clueless as me as to where the market will be next week or any time in the future. If you trade with this kind of mindset, you'll approach the market without any opinion. And without any biases, you'll see beyond the smokescreen of your opinions. You will see clearly what the market is telling you.

So, where do I think the PSEi is going to go? I don't know. No one does. If some analyst tell you that the index will end this year at 8500 level, he is either using a crystal ball or is making it all up. Some analysts from a Philippine brokerage already figured it out and posted it on Twitter yesterday, but I'm still scratching my head here.

I don't have an opinion on the market, I am neither bullish nor bearish. It is because I honestly don't know where it is going.

Portfolio update:

Sold my $BEL at -4.94% loss today. I want to move my funds to a much faster stock. I am watching $STI again.

Current positions:

$MEG +10.45%
$WLCON +18.84%
$IMI +86.09%




Jun 4, 2017

Post #23: The need for heroes

I like to call people that I look up to as heroes. Some will prefer to call them mentors or teachers. When it comes to trading, I call people I want to emulate as my heroes because they don't just teach me how to trade, they also inspires me to dream. There are many reasons why we really need mentors or heroes in our lives. This is true for any endeavor we want to pursue, whether it's trading or financial and career success.

Meeting Mr. Tony Herbosa of Trader's Apprentice Pilipinas. I consider him as one of the people I look up to when I was just starting 5 years ago. 


Heroes inspires us. We always look up to them, like they're some kind of a super human with super powers. We want to be like them. Being inspired, we are charged with an awesome energy of enthusiasm that will help us complete the tasks we should do to  attain success. Mentors will make us realize that our dream is within our reach, because if they can do it themselves, it is also possible for us to achieve.

Mentors will help hasten our success by showing us what kind of mistakes we should avoid. We will learn from their mistakes. They will show us patterns that we cannot possibly perceive by doing things on our own. They will leave guideposts for us to follow, blueprints that will help us get started. No matter how smart we are, we will make mistakes that will slow down our progress. Recognizing those mistakes earlier will help us progress faster.

Great teacher will not just teach us what to do, they will also show us how to think. Correct mindset is crucial to our success. Our mentors, those who've already done it, thinks differently from the rest of us. They perceive things differently, and have a different mindset that will help them operate differently from the rest of the masses.If there is one main reason why they are more successful than most of us, I will attribute it to their different way of thinking and doing things. By looking into the minds of our heroes, we will have a glimpse of how different they think and we will learn what kind of winning mindset that works we should possess as well.

Some of my heroes I never met personally. Books will help us look into our mentors and heroes  minds.


I believe that getting mentors is vital to our success. They will guide us, put us in the proper mindset and inspire us to dream bigger and take action. It doesn't matter what kind of endeavor you want to succeed on, getting a mentor will be beneficial to you. We all need heroes to look up to.

My stock portfolio update:

$BEL P4.05 (-4.94%)
$IMI  P10.52 (+50.59%)
$MEG P4.54 (+6.92%)
$WLCON P6.07 (+10.98%)