Post #27: STI and some LR

$STI opened with a gap today but closed lower. A little concerning but not a signal for reversal yet.

Current price is at P1.60 and I have my trailing stop around P1.50.

chart by www.bigcharts.com

Some people will take this as a reversal signal but I am willing to give it more leeway as long as it doesn't break my stop.  

Another interesting stock for me is $LR, it's been on my watch-list for quite some time now.

Today I bought some. Only time will tell if I'm right.

chart by www.bigcharts.com

My stop is around P4.35 and more positions will be added in the next few days if my entry is proven to be good.

Current positions: $IMI, $WLCON, $STI, $LR

Post #26: Lessons learned

They said that doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is insanity. Learning from our mistakes is one of the most important component of our growth. We can read all the books we want on theories and what mistakes to avoid from other people's experience, but experiencing it ourselves is invaluable. I will narrate here some of the top mistakes I made when I was still new to trading the market, hoping that this will inspire self-reflection from other traders.

My trading PC a few years back :)

1. Not having a trading plan of my own

When I was really new to trading, I would buy stocks impulsively without any plans at all. If I saw any stocks trending on social media, I would get excited and will decide to try and maybe buy some of it.  I can't remember any of that trades ended of me getting substantial profits.

You can't rely on following other people's post on social media, most of them are posting stocks they already have positions in and they actually just want you to buy and help their stocks go up in price so they can sell it with a profit. I still see a lot of newbies joining many different groups in FB thinking that the more groups they join the more good tips or rumors they'll get. This is sadly not true, I believe that almost 95% of posts in social media are either people hyping up their positions or newbies trying their hands on TA or Fundamental analysis. Social media is the easiest place to get validations since we can get instant feedback through likes and comments; and some people get satisfaction from this.

The best thing to do is create your own trading plan. Make your own research and set a definite buy and sell plans for your trades. Create every possible scenario in your mind and make a definite action plan for every scenario to avoid surprises. This way, you'll be trading your own plans and not just become a pawn in other people's trading plans.

2. Over-trading

I used to trade like I need to earn some cash everyday. I felt like I need to take every opportunity I see or I will miss a possible profitable trade. This made me jump from one trade to another hoping to catch a good trade. 

I also trade a lot of stocks at once. Maybe I was thinking that the more stocks I buy, the more chances of me hitting that one lucky trade. I did get lucky once in a while, but mostly my losers will cancel out my gains or worst surpass it. 

My solution is to focus on a few good stocks, try to get significant volume on them and ride the big moves. Sure, you'll get some profits off quicker trades but they'll never be significant to affect your entire portfolio because it is difficult to get significant volume on a quick trade. My goal is too catch big moves with volume. Longer time-frames and getting significant volume results in bigger profits, at least in my experience.

3. Trading for excitement

I used to tell my friends that I love trading because it is exciting. The ups and down in my portfolio is actually parallel to the state of my own mood. I felt down when I am on a losing trade and I am euphoric when I'm profitable. The swing from one emotional low to another high is addictive, but it is not filling my bank account.

If you trade for excitement, stop immediately and reflect. I'm serious. The market is not the place to fulfill your needs for excitement. There are surely other adrenaline-producing activities one can do outside the market.

The easiest way to asses yourself is to ask yourself this questions:

Am I trading because it's cool and it excites me?

Are weekends boring to me because there is no trading?

Does my mood reflects my portfolio's gains or losses?

If you answered YES to any of that questions, your'e "probably" trading for excitement.

The easiest solution to this is to assess yourself and think deeply why  you are trading. It is normal for us humans to feel happy and sad in relation to a win or a loss but the most important thing is to identify your definite chief aim in trading. Was it to get excitement or was it to make money?

Don't treat the market as a hobby, hobbies don't give profits but instead it cost us money. Find excitement outside of trading; play sports or engage in some adrenaline-producing activities outside of trading. Emotions gets in the way of making rational decision in trading.

4. Over complicating my system

Iv'e studied almost all TA indicators used and Iv'e also read many books on FA. I used to believe that the more indicators I use, I can better fine tune my entries and exits flawlessly. I used to love matching indicators like MACD, RSI, Bollingers band, PSAR and Fibo retracement and many more hoping to find that perfect stock. Can you imagine how chaotic my charts looked like back then?  I now believe otherwise, as I am only using price action, volume and some little info about the stock's fundamentals.

In my opinion, most of the indicators are lagging and they are of little importance. Focus on a few indicators that works for you instead. Stick to one strategy and master that, instead of polluting your charts with many different confusing indicators.

5. Not doing self-evaluation

I used to trade blind; I have no goals and I am not assessing my progress. I don't even know if I am doing any progress at all or if my system is really working as I believe it is.

Without self-assessment, you won't know your mistakes; not recognizing those mistakes, won't give you any chances to correct them.

Review your system and study your past trades. What reoccurring mistakes are evident? How can you correct them?

Measure your progress. How's your performance compared to last month or last year? When you applied the changes in your system, did it affect your portfolio's performance? Are you satisfied with your progress? What improvements do you think are needed to enhance your results?

To improve, you have to continually measure your progress and make the necessary adjustments.


Conclusion

Studying past mistakes are vital to our success as traders. Experience is the best teacher, the lessons will last and stick to us longer than the knowledge we got from reading about other people's experience. These above are my own personal experiences and I encourage everyone to review and study their past mistakes too. You'll learn more studying your past mistakes than studying other people's mistakes. All it requires is an honest assessment of oneself.


Portfolio update:

Sold my $MEG last Friday with only 1.54% gain as my trailing stop was hit. 

Current positions $IMI (+103%), $WLCON (+46%), $STI (+27%)

Cheers

Alex

Post #25: My love story with $BEL and $STI...

Me with the love of my life

We all have love stories to tell. Some of our stories have happy endings, but others don't end the way we hoped them to be. Some gave us unforgettable heartaches but some also gave us good memories. What is important with all of these experiences are the lessons we learned from them. Trading is similar to dating, some stocks will break your heart, but some will make you happy. Some of the decisions you made you will surely regret, but the lessons will stick to you and make you a better trader.

This story is about what happened to me in $BEL and $STI. One seduced me twice but broke my heart in the end, the other made me happy once and is giving me another chance to be with her again.

I believe that a picture or a chart is still worth a thousand words.

Let me show you.

After two attempt to woe her, I finally decided to let $BEL go. It's clear to me, we are not meant to be, at least for now. Maybe someday..

chart by www.bigcharts.com

On the other hand, another stock is giving me a second chance at her. They said love is sweeter the second time around and hopefully $STI will prove it to me once again. I enjoy a good challenge and looks like she is up for a game.

chart by www.bigcharts.com

What lessons did I learn? I learned that you will make mistakes no matter how careful you are. And I also learned that it is okay to make mistakes, for mistakes will teach us valuable lessons. Finally, I also learned that mistakes should not discourage us in making new trades, take the challenge and try again and again until you find your happy ending. Never give up on love.

Port update:

$IMI +77%, $WLCON +28%, $STI +7%,$MEG +8%

Post #24: Bullish or Bearish?

Where do you think the market is heading?  View from Victoria Peak, Hong Kong, photo by yours truly.

People always ask me if either I'm Bullish or Bearish with the market. It's like people want to know my opinion of the market and then see if it validates their views. If you really want to know the answer to that, just turn on the TV; we'll never ran out of expert opinions on the matter.  But then again, market predictions will be different from one expert to another.

The market will go where it want to go. It doesn't care about my opinion or yours. I trade what I see, not what I thought the market is going to do. I don't listen to any analyst on TV, all of them are as clueless as me as to where the market will be next week or any time in the future. If you trade with this kind of mindset, you'll approach the market without any opinion. And without any biases, you'll see beyond the smokescreen of your opinions. You will see clearly what the market is telling you.

So, where do I think the PSEi is going to go? I don't know. No one does. If some analyst tell you that the index will end this year at 8500 level, he is either using a crystal ball or is making it all up. Some analysts from a Philippine brokerage already figured it out and posted it on Twitter yesterday, but I'm still scratching my head here.

I don't have an opinion on the market, I am neither bullish nor bearish. It is because I honestly don't know where it is going.

Portfolio update:

Sold my $BEL at -4.94% loss today. I want to move my funds to a much faster stock. I am watching $STI again.

Current positions:

$MEG +10.45%
$WLCON +18.84%
$IMI +86.09%

Post #23: The need for heroes

I like to call people that I look up to as heroes. Some will prefer to call them mentors or teachers. When it comes to trading, I call people I want to emulate as my heroes because they don't just teach me how to trade, they also inspires me to dream. There are many reasons why we really need mentors or heroes in our lives. This is true for any endeavor we want to pursue, whether it's trading or financial and career success.

Meeting Mr. Tony Herbosa of Trader's Apprentice Pilipinas. I consider him as one of the people I look up to when I was just starting 5 years ago. 

Heroes inspires us. We always look up to them, like they're some kind of a super human with super powers. We want to be like them. Being inspired, we are charged with an awesome energy of enthusiasm that will help us complete the tasks we should do to  attain success. Mentors will make us realize that our dream is within our reach, because if they can do it themselves, it is also possible for us to achieve.

Mentors will help hasten our success by showing us what kind of mistakes we should avoid. We will learn from their mistakes. They will show us patterns that we cannot possibly perceive by doing things on our own. They will leave guideposts for us to follow, blueprints that will help us get started. No matter how smart we are, we will make mistakes that will slow down our progress. Recognizing those mistakes earlier will help us progress faster.

Great teacher will not just teach us what to do, they will also show us how to think. Correct mindset is crucial to our success. Our mentors, those who've already done it, thinks differently from the rest of us. They perceive things differently, and have a different mindset that will help them operate differently from the rest of the masses.If there is one main reason why they are more successful than most of us, I will attribute it to their different way of thinking and doing things. By looking into the minds of our heroes, we will have a glimpse of how different they think and we will learn what kind of winning mindset that works we should possess as well.

Some of my heroes I never met personally. Books will help us look into our mentors and heroes  minds.

I believe that getting mentors is vital to our success. They will guide us, put us in the proper mindset and inspire us to dream bigger and take action. It doesn't matter what kind of endeavor you want to succeed on, getting a mentor will be beneficial to you. We all need heroes to look up to.

My stock portfolio update:

$BEL P4.05 (-4.94%)
$IMI  P10.52 (+50.59%)
$MEG P4.54 (+6.92%)
$WLCON P6.07 (+10.98%)

Post #22: Portfolio update

Quick updates:

Sold my $MCP for a 54% profit. It showed sign of slowing down, I could be wrong though.

Bought some $WLCON at P 5.36/share. Stop at P5.30 below.

Sold $MCP at 54% profit. Photo screenshot from my Philstocks android app.

I currently have $IMI,$WLCON,$MEG and $BEL in my portfolio.

Remarks: Index resistance is at 8000.

PSE Index is seeing resistance at approx 8000. Photo by www.bigcharts.com

Post #21: YTD portfolio performance

I am quite satisfied to report that my current portfolio is up 15.26% YTD. I started monitoring my portfolio performance since January 1, 2017; a good way to assess myself if I am indeed making progress in this business. There are plenty of reasons why you should monitor your portfolio performance too.

By plotting your performance you will know if your system is really working for you. Looking at your performance, you will get a more concrete look at your portfolio's movement. This way you know where you are in relationship to where you want to go or what you want to achieve.

By seeing your YTD performance, you'll have a chance to assess yourself. You will learn what you did right/wrong in a particular time or trade. This way it is easier to make adjustments, simply by looking at your performance chart, you can pinpoint your mistakes as well as the things you did right.

Another important reason why you should monitor your performance is bench-marking. This way you will have an estimate on how well  you are progressing compared to your peers, to the index or to other funds manager. This can motivate you to learn more for you to be able beat the index or the mutual fund managers. If your'e doing well, this could also give you motivation as you are patting yourself on the back.

So I encourage every trader to monitor their YTD performance; make a record of it and make a graph out of it. It can help you physically look at your progress, asses yourself and your system, and motivate you by comparing your result with others.

Portfolio update.

My current positions are in $MCP,$IMI,$BEL and $MEG.

The market is feeling a little bullish and people seem to be more willing to buy it up.

I'll stick to the only thing I should do,let them(stocks) run and just watch my trailing stops.

Note:Edited June 6, 2017 to correct inputs in the YTD chart.

Post #20: You can always go back in...

I believe that it is always safer to be on the sidelines than stick to a  slow or a down-trending stock. You can always go back in when situations changes in your favor.

This is what happened to me in $BEL.

chart by www.bigcharts.com

I bought it back at P4.15/share. That P4.00 breakout looks strong to me so I decided to hop back in to have a position.


I know that  I could've a lower average if I held on to it. It was a mistake, my stop is actually at P3.75 but I though it to be a slower horse so I sold it for a small profit.  I bought $MEG which I thought is having a stronger momentum than $BEL. Only time will tell if I'm right or wrong.

I currently have the following stocks in my portfolio:

$MCP +34%
$BEL +0.58%
$MEG -3%
$IMI +14%

 I will just watch my stops from hereon. Funds will be moved between these 4 stocks according to momentum strength.

Post #19: Some lessons in patience and letting go

I made a recent blunder, I sold my $BEL for a small profit hoping to find a faster stock.

Guess what? $BEL broke out and made a new 52-week high a day after I sold it.

chart by www.bigcharts.com

$BEL broke P4.00 and is looking to stay above it.

Although I felt bad about my latest blunder, I fully understand that no one can perfectly predict what the price is gonna do next. The earlier you realized this, the better.

I didn't kick myself out of that mistake. I know there is no way I could've predicted that breakout happening.

I don't like it when stocks hit a new high then hit it's 2-week low. That's the only reason why I sold $BEL.

I still have cash left and is watching if $BEL is worth another try.

Meanwhile, I bought $MEG at P4.10 average.

chart by www.bigcharts.com

My other two stocks are doing much  better, looks like their upward trend is still intact.

I'm up 31% in $MCP and +11% in $IMI.

In port:

$MEG,$MCP,$IMI

Post #18: $BEL out, and another possible entry...

Sold my position in $BEL today as I don't like that it hasn't broke P4.00 yet as of this time.

Though $BEL will remain in my watch-list as long as P3.75 holds.

$BEL will have its time, but it's not yet now.

I can always comeback in when my signals  tells me to.

Right now, I'm watching a possible position in $MEG. Funds from $BEL will move to $MEG if my signals are confirmed.

For now, I only have $MCP and $IMI on my portfolio.

Post #17: Portfolio update

I am still holding the same stocks with my stops adjusted.

$BEL stop at 3.75 still.

$IMI initial stop is at 7.50

$MCP initial stop at 6.50

Screen capture from Philstocks Xavi Android App

The Philippine Index closed at 7446.49 today, a little above its previous trading range of approximately 7200-7400.

I am staying long on my positions as long as my stops are not hit.

As Iv'e said before, my trading style is boring.  Once the time-consuming research is done, I will initiate an entry, and then will do nothing but just watch my stops and adjust them accordingly.

Post #16: Portfolio update

As of last update, I still have positions in the ff. stocks:


1. $MCP

Average: P5.55
Current price: P6.44
Initial stop: P6.00

charts by www.bigcharts.com 

2. $BEL

Average: P3.67
Current price: P3.80
Initial stop: P3.75

charts by www.bigcharts.com

3. $IMI

Average: 6.93
Current price: P7.41
Initial stop: P7.00

charts by www.bigcharts.com

As long as these three won't break my initial stops, I will still stay long in my positions. Nothing to do now but to just watch my stops and look for opportunity (if there is) to add more positions.

Please take note that my stops are only soft stops. Unlike hard stops, that if broken, I immediately exit a position without any second thoughts; initial stops somehow only triggers my warning signal to watch my stops more carefully.

Post #15: IMI Integrated Micro-electronics

Bought some $IMI today at average price of 6.93/share, initial stop at 6.75/share.

I like the way its price is moving, let's see if i'm right.

Current port positions:

$MCP ave. 5.55
$BELave. 3.67
$IMI ave. 6.93

Post #14: Bought some Melco Crown (late update)

Last March 9, 2017, I bought some shares of Melco Crown ($MCP) at P5.54/share.

Please take note that I sold $MCP last December and kept it in my watchlist.

Belle Corp. ($BEL) hit my stop ay P3.65 few times but I am still keeping it because of the very low volume pullback. I'm gonna give it a little bit of breathing room. ($BEL at P3.66/share as of this date)

The index remains in its 7200-7400 trading range and any massive move to any of the side might create a trend.

My stops are closely being monitored as I just entered these positions and the index has no clear trend direction yet.

I'm long approximately 80% of my entire funds right now.

Post#13: Trailing stops hit and some $BEL

Last March 1, 2017, my trailing stop on my position in $STI was hit and I sold my holdings for an average of P1.09/share and a gain of 21% since last November.  I was hoping to let my $STI run but a ranging PSEi made me tighten my stops s little. As always, I promised to follow my plan and I did it without hesitation.

I also sold my $DNL since it failed to maintain it's price above P13/share with a small percentage gain not even worth mentioning.

$DNL and $STI will remain in my watchlist for now again.

Although I felt bad losing my positions, I immediately looked for other stocks that show some strength. I am currently trading with only 50% of my port in positions as I dont like the general market condition.

March 3, 2017 - Bought some $BEL at P3.63/share.

March 6, 2017 - Added some more $BEL as I feel it going stronger at P3.72/share.

Average $BEL price is at P3.67/share.

Update: March 7, 2017 current position up 4.64% with $BEL at P3.88/share.

Initial stop at P3.65.


BELLE CORPORATION ($BEL)

stock chart provided by www.bigcharts.com

Post #12: Thoughts on mining stocks

Earlier this month, Philippine environment secretary Gina Lopez ordered the closure of 21 miners for violating mining and environmental laws.

Some of them are publicly listed in PSE and the news automatically made the price of the companies tumbling down.

I remember some of them being on my watch-list somewhere around November last year. See Fickle nickle: $FNI and $NIKL blog post.

I even mentioned $MARC in my January 13 post.

The main reason I included these stocks in my watch-list is that they are showing good price action set ups during that time. All three are actually on the brink of breaking out that time.

Later though, I removed them from my watch-list after they all showed signs of a failed breakout. A failed breakout is always a red flag for me, it will either go back to a range below the breakout point or it will start to show a lower low trend. Based on my experience, rarely does it go back to test the resistance again. 

All these charts are not shouting BUY to me.  

The mining sector was badly beaten, but there are still good stocks in that sector. I particularly like $PX's price action. 

I haven't posted here that much since I've done literally nothing, they are right when they said that stock investing is boring. I still have $STI and some $DNL in my portfolio. 

I also started trading the Stock Exchange of Thailand. It's a whole new and different market, in a way that it's more liquid and volatile. 

This blog will focus on my PSE trading though, so I wont be posting my Thailand stock market trades here. 

Cheers

Alex

Post #11: D&L Industries

$DNL

chart by www.bigcharts.com

The weekly chart of $DNL shows a perfect cup and handle formation. A breakout on this level, accompanied with good volume will trigger a buy for me.

This stock along with $STI will be my focus for now. The rest will stay at the watchlist.

$STI

chart by www.bigcharts.com

Moved my trailing stop on $STI at P1.00. I conclude that breakout is confirmed and P1.00 will be the new immediate support.

From hereon, I will do nothing but watch my stop and look for opportunity to add more position in case the trend continues to point upward.

Post # 10: Updated watchlist

PSEi started to perform better after the New Year. My risk signal is starting to loosen up and I'm ready to take additional positions.

My watchlist includes stocks that are breaking out of their new high and showing strength in volume.

Currently I am eyeing $MCP, $PX and lately added $DNL and $MARC.

I am currently +11.55% on $STI, the only stock on my portfolio right now.

I will be closely watching for more opportunities to enter additional positions.

Post #9: PSEi back at 7200+

The index closed at 7248 points yesterday. We're going to see if reversal is confirmed next week.

Portfolio: $STI closed at P1.05. Let's see if it will move its support at P1.00.

Watchlist: $MCP, $SMPH, $PX

These three are showing signs of breaking out. I particularly like the patterns that their prices are making.

Post # 8: MCP out

I was convince that $MCP broke its support at P4.00 that I took a small loss and closed my position.

I figured that I can always go back if things look interesting for me again.

I always try to respect my stops. Not doing so caused me great losses few years back.I will never make that mistake again.

chart by bigcharts.com

My position remains in $STI for now. I expected it to range inside the box (.90-1.00+) for a while. Although I do not like the direction of the general market, I'll give $STI more leeway for it showed itself to be resilient.

The index

I am seeing the index ranging between 6800 and 7000. Either a breakdown or a breakout of that range might be at the horizon now, and it will determine the direction that the index will take.

I am not really intending to add to my positions for now. I want the market to show me clear directions before committing any more funds. I will just watch the stop of my current position while waiting for a better market condition.